🏈 Who Won The Dexter Lawrence Trade?

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April 20, 2026

THE WEIGH-IN

The 2026 Cincinnati Bengals will…

○Miss the playoffs

○Make the playoffs, but go one-and-done

○Advance to the AFC championship game

○Make a Super Bowl appearance

THE BREAKDOWN

Bengals Break Character With Major Trade

What Happened: Over the weekend, the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants agreed on a deal that sent All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to Ohio in exchange for the 10th pick in Thursday’s draft. That’s it, a simple one-for-one swap.

Let’s break down the deal from both sides.

Why You Care: For the Giants, a major weakness just got worse. New York gave up the second-most yards to opposing rushing attacks last season, with the only team giving up more the…Bengals. I guess they figure if they can have a crappy run defense with Lawrence, they can do it without him. In the big picture, this probably reveals John Harbaugh’s belief in New York’s ability to compete this season. If he thought the team was closer than its 4-13 record suggested, he wouldn’t be dealing away Lawrence.

I can’t help but think this feels a lot like a common Bill Belichick trade archetype: trading away the productive veteran one year early before one year too late. Lawrence was agitating for more money, and as he turns 29 in November, wanted what might be his last big payday. Rather than lock up an aging player coming off a down season (Lawrence had nine sacks in 2024 and a half of one last season), Harbaugh and the Giants sell high and now have two top-10 draft picks to rebuild this roster.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are incentivized to go big on Lawrence’s remaining prime seasons because that’s what teams with superstar quarterbacks do. Joe Burrow ensures this team has a championship ceiling, but the defense in recent seasons has ensured that even the playoffs are off the table. Cincy lost three games last season in which it scored 34+ points (including twice in two weeks!) and hasn’t made the postseason since 2022, an unacceptable truth with all the firepower it has on offense.

This is out of character for the Bengals’ front office, an encouraging sign. And one that whiffs of self-preservation. Four straight seasons of Burrow’s prime without so much as a trip to the playoffs will result in a lot of people losing their jobs, and here’s a hint, the QB ain’t one of them. Rather than stick to the draft-and-develop plan and hope some ready-made talent makes it to pick #10, the Bengals went and got a player that league executives, coaches and scouts ranked as the best defensive tackle in football entering last season.

Alrighty, so, who won this deal? The logic on both sides is sound, and if the Cincy D can raise its level to even slightly below-average with Lawrence, they might view the trade as worth it if it results in more football in January. But betting on the bounceback of a soon-to-be 29 year old nose tackle isn’t for me. The 10th pick of the draft, with no other pick swaps, is a strong return for the Giants, and I can’t see Lawrence being worth that on top of the $28 million extension he signed upon completion of the deal.

TODAY's LINEUP

Keep An Eye On...

This Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic playoff series, aka the only one with intrigue so far.

Ok, maybe not the only one. But the Magic were the only lower-seeded team to take a 1-0 series lead in the NBA bracket. (The Lakers surprised many by downing the Rockets, but the Lakers are the four-seed and Houston is the five.)

Paolo Banchero gives Orlando a scoring threat that can take over a series, and Detroit earned the top seed in the East after Boston took off most of the regular season and the Knicks swung between looking like a contender and a pretender from one game to the next. The Pistons should be able to move on, but digging themselves a 0-1 hole puts the pressure on them early.

YESTERDAY'S SCORECARD

When will Ty Simpson come off the board?

Bottom half of Round 1 — 31%

1K+ fans weighed in

Some team is going to want to take Simpson in the back half of the first round so that his rookie contract comes with the valuable fifth-year option. If Simpson does turn into a viable starting option, the team that takes him will have five years of control, as opposed to the four-year deals non-first round picks sign. Look for a team interested in Simpson to trade up, not only to secure that fifth year, but also to jump ahead of the Jets, who have the first pick of the second round and, as always, need a new QB for the future.

Back and better than ever,

Jimmy