Why You Care: Because it’s baseball, we’ve already got stats on the ABS system. It’s too early to draw meaningful conclusions from them yet in such a small sample, but some things stand out. Several batters have challenged multiple calls and have maintained a success rate of 100%, but no pitchers have done the same. Behind the dish, the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto leads all catchers with five successful challenges in five attempts, with Seattle’s Mitch Garver going 4-for-4 so far. Logan O’Hoppe could be considered the catcher most skeptical of umpires — he’s challenged 13 calls, 10 of them successful.
But the raw data isn’t enough for some seamheads. Sites such as TapToChallenge are already working to turn ABS data into rate stats. For example, the stat “Net RE” attempts to measure, per the site, “[t]he change in expected runs for the challenging team due to the result of the challenge.” The aforementioned O’Hoppe leads all players so far with a +2.99 Net RE. Put simply, O’Hoppe’s already earned the Angels almost three net runs as a result of his savvy doubting of the humans calling balls and strikes.
Teams are already using this same data in their own proprietary ways, and I’d wager that as we approach the trade deadline, we’ll hear that someone was traded for because of his skill in navigating the ABS challenge system. Agents are doing the same, getting ready to hype their clients as difference-makers regarding this innovation that’s changing how the game is officiated. Some number of teams will swing too far in one direction as we navigate this new baseball world.
It’s cool to see which players are good at challenges, but imagine being an umpire and having a daily report card blasted out to the entire sports media? If that were me, I’d never take my mask off. |
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